Fears of police retirement boom in Scotland as almost 1,000 officers eligible to leave

   Almost 1,000 police officers in Scotland are eligible to retire between now and next summer, raising fears that the strength of the force is declining. Figures obtained by Scotland’s justice and social affairs magazine 1919 show that 945 officers are coming up for retirement within the next year, six per cent of the total.

On top of this, 656 officers (four per cent of the total) are currently on long-term sick leave, with a further 2,183 (13 per cent of the total) on modified duties, which usually applies to those recovering from an illness or injury. Taken together, this means that almost a quarter of Police Scotland officers are either eligible to retire by next summer, are off sick or unable to be deployed. The figures, obtained through Freedom of Information requests, follow official statistics showing that the overall police headcount has fallen to 16,207, its lowest level since 2007.

Responding, Justice Secretary Angela Constance said Police Scotland had “indicated” that this had increased to around 16,400 officers by the beginning of August. The Scottish Police Federation has warned that Police Scotland cannot recruit enough officers to replace those who are leaving, despite ongoing efforts to attract more staff. Separate figures show that the number of people applying to join Police Scotland fell by 17 per cent between 2022/23 and 2023/24, from 3,841 to 3,189. The most recent official figures show there were 16,207 full-time equivalent officers employed by Police Scotland on June 30, a decrease of 148 officers since the end of March. Year-on-year, the number of FTE officers reduced by 392.

David Threadgold, chair of the Scottish Police Federation, said: “Efforts to bring Police Scotland back up to its establishment figure of 16,600 are being hampered because the service simply cannot recruit the number of officers it needs to replace those who are leaving. “This will be exacerbated if the number of officers who can retire actually do. “Policing has got some well-rehearsed challenges at the moment: officer numbers, pay, workload, demand, officer sickness and ill-health, police assault has been on the increase. “But we should still be able to retain officers who could retire, and the service has done nowhere near enough work to look to retain those who potentially can retire. “The situation is made even more difficult because the number of people applying to join the organisation is reducing, and Police Scotland has work to do to ensure that we are making the job of police officer as attractive as it can be to as broad a spectrum of the communities of Scotland as we can.”

  Liberal Democrat MP Wendy Chamberlain, a former police officer, said: “Officers feel unsupported, overwhelmed and stretched dangerously thin. It is no surprise that so many are quitting. It is no wonder that policing bodies are warning of a public safety crisis. “It’s time for the Scottish Government to listen and commit to resourcing the service properly.”

  Scottish Conservative deputy justice spokesperson Sharon Dowey said: “The SNP’s shameful long-term neglect of policing in Scotland has seen officer numbers plummet and our streets become less safe. “This has created a vicious circle where officers are over-stretched and more likely to have their duties restricted, be off sick long term, change career or retire early. “On top of that, we have a high proportion of natural retirements looming. “This is a huge headache for Police Scotland bosses – and it stems from the savage and sustained cuts they have faced at the hands of the SNP government.”   Chief Constable Jo Farrell has previously said she wants to “bring the frontline of policing to its strongest possible position”. She told a meeting of the Scottish Police Authority board earlier this year: “We know a number of factors, going back to recruitment and training being paused during the pandemic and COP26 and an increase in retirement following pension changes, along with a recruitment pause to ensure we delivered a balanced budget in 2023/24, have contributed to greater volatility in officer numbers than would otherwise be the case. “Police Scotland's retention rate is in line with other large police services. So far in 2024, as with previous years, we continue to see the majority of officers leave for retirement. “Although our retention rate is good, I do recognise policing is a demanding job and I'm focused on improving the experiences of officers and staff. I want to bring the frontline of policing to its strongest possible position. “The context of that strength goes beyond an overall officer headcount, and it is important we continue to maximise experienced officers performing frontline, operational policing for our communities.”

  Justice Secretary Angela Constance said: “Record police funding of £1.55 billion this year – an increase of £92.7 million – means Police Scotland will take on more recruits this year than at any time since 2013.  “Police Scotland indicated that there were around 16,400 officers at the beginning of August, with over 550 new officers recruited since March and further intakes planned throughout this year. “At a Scottish Police Authority Board meeting in June, Police Scotland described the number of candidates and applicants looking to join as ‘really positive’. “Scotland continues to have more police officers per capita than England and Wales and this continues to be a safe place to live, with recorded crime at one of the lowest levels since 1974 and down 40 per cent since 2006/07.”